UFC 317's main card opens up with a thrilling fight at 135 pounds between Payton Talbott and Felipe Lima. Below, I'll touch on each fighter's path to this match, before closing with the odds and my best bet for the bout. Read on for our top UFC 317 picks and predictions.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
UFC 317 Picks: Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Payton Talbott (9-1-0)
Last Five Fights: L-W-W-W-W
Payton Talbott earned his way to the UFC via Dana White’s Contender Series in 2023. He's posted a 9-1-0 record during his MMA career. However, the 26-year-old suffered his first loss last time out against Raoni Barcelos (U-DEC) at UFC 311. He was out-struck 62-49 and lost the takedown battle 8-1.
Talbott is a high-volume striker, landing 6.73 significant strikes per minute. He's absorbing 3.75 strikes per minute. Of his nine wins, he has seven knockouts, one submission and a decision victory. He isn't too active in the takedown department, averaging only 0.32 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 33% success rate. He's fending off 75% of opposing takedown attempts.
Betting Profile: Felipe Lima (14-1-0)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-W
Felipe Lima lost his first professional fight via submission way back in 2015, but he has since rattled off 14 consecutive wins and earned a UFC contract. He's 2-0-0 in the promotion, notching wins over Muhammad Naimov (SUB - Rear Naked Choke) and Miles Johns (U-DEC).
"Jungle Boy" is a balanced fighter, as he's logged seven decisions, four knockouts and three submissions. During his time in the UFC, he's landing 1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 42% clip. He's fending off 83% of opposing takedown attempts. On the feet, the Brazilian is averaging 3.50 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing only 2.32 strikes per minute.
Bottom Line
Felipe Lima, who's in the midst of a 14-fight winning streak, is a sizable -192 Moneyline favorite for this main-card opener. Payton Talbott comes back at +160 to get back in the win column after losing via unanimous decision last time out.
I'm confident Lima will continue his heater and secure a 15th consecutive win on Saturday night. This Moneyline of -192 is a little lofty, so I'll likely parlay it with something else over the weekend to knock off some of the juice. As for what, I'm looking at pairing it with Bayern Munich to advance (-310) in the FIFA Club World Cup on Saturday. These two legs parlayed together pay +101 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Now let's get back to this fight. From a betting perspective, the best way to attack this bout is to take Lima to win by decision at +100. Two key metrics stand out. First, it's that Lima's strike defense rate is 72%, meaning only 28% of his opponents' strikes have landed. Being that Talbott is mainly a striker and has the edge in reach (70 inches vs. 68 inches), if Lima's able to mitigate his risk on the feet and neutralize Talbott's striking ability, he should find success in this bout.
The Brazilian is also capable of taking fights to the ground, which he may have to do on Saturday to work around his disadvantages in height and reach. "Jungle Boy" is landing 1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he'll be looking to take down a fighter who just conceded eight takedowns in his last fight.
Talbott has been taken down at least once in three of his five UFC contests. Lima is the more well-rounded fighter, and I believe that will show up on the scorecards after 15 minutes in the octagon on Saturday night.
Bet: Felipe Lima to Win by Decision (+100)
